Best Friend/Worst Enemy?

By now I doubt if there’s anybody in the United States who hasn’t seen one of the many movies or TV shows about zombies.  You know, those “undead” creatures that walk around like automatons and try to bite anyone who crosses their path.  They infect the people they bite and those poor victims become zombies too, wreaking more havoc all around with their own desire to bite. 

In such a “zombie apocalypse” you are not safe from anyone.  Once someone is infected, they will eventually try to bite anyone or anything.  If your best friend is bitten, she will eventually try to infect you.  Your best friend may indeed become your worst enemy.

Well, this ain’t that…quite.

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The coronavirus has been in the news a lot lately.  Some people minimize the health risks posed by the disease, while others predict virtually the end of humankind.

Well, as usual, the risk is somewhere in between, but it’s serious enough that I chose to write this post.

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Coronaviruses have been around for a long time.  They are members of a large family of viruses that are common in people and many species of animals, and it appears that this new one originated in bats.  First called novel virus, Coronavirus disease of 2019 is now called COVID-19 for short, but the news services usually just call it coronavirus.  At some point, possibly in China, it first infected humans.  From there it has rapidly spread near and far, and quickly.

Therein lies one part of the problem.  COVID-19 is so virulent that it spreads fast.  It was first recognized in a food market in central China.  It spread to the nation’s large cities before jumping the borders to countries nearby.  Now it has been found on the west coast of the United States.

That all took place in about three weeks’ time.  Yup, less than a month.

Heck, I’ve ordered packages from China that took longer than that to get here.

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So how dangerous is this new corona virus?  As some have implied recently, not very, for MOST of us.  The fact is, for the majority of us, the virus would be much like a cold, with fever, cough, and shortness of breath, but for SOME it would be very, very bad.  And, by some, I mean too many.

Way too many.

Some have compared the number of people who die from flu with the number who have already died from COVID-19.  Don’t be fooled by this.  The fact is, last year the flu killed about 0.06% to 0.1% of those who contracted it.  Thus far, COVID-19 has killed about 2%!  Big difference.

Folks, that means this coronavirus kills at least 20 to 33 times as many of those infected as the flu did last year.  Just to illustrate, one report I found said that 42.9 million people got sick during the 2018-19 flu season, 647,000 were hospitalized, and 62,100 people died.  That approximately 0.14% death rate makes it a pretty typical flu season.

If that same 42.9 million people are infected by COVID-19 and the current 2% death rate remains consistent, it predicts approximately 858,000 deaths due to coronavirus.  Current estimates (I emphasize estimates) are that 20% of those infected will have to be hospitalized.  That’s approximately 8,580,000 people trying to get help at hospitals.

Granted, all those numbers are worldwide, but it still sounds a lot worse than the flu to me.  I don’t know about you but there is nobody in my family that I want to lose to COVID-19.

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The very young, the elderly, those with compromised immune systems, and those with existing medical conditions (like heart disease) are at increased risk of serious complications.  These complications can include acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS); irregular heartbeat (arrhythmia); cardiovascular shock; severe muscle pain (myalgia); fatigue; and heart damage or heart attack.  The most serious complication of COVID-19 is a type of pneumonia that’s been called 2019 novel coronavirus-infected pneumonia (NCIP).

About 4.3 percent of people who were admitted to the ICU with CoViD-19 have died from this type of pneumonia.

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Another part of the problem is that COVID-19 is highly contagious.  It can spread from person to person through breathing in the particles infected people sneeze or cough out (respiratory droplets).  It can also be passed by touching people who have sneezed or coughed the particles on themselves.  There is some evidence that it can be picked up by touching objects like doorknobs that infected people have come in contact with.

Wherever there are lots of people in close proximity, the disease spreads quickly.  If you live in a crowded city; ride public transportation; work in a crowded school; or attend crowded sporting events, your chances of being infected are much greater than a ranch-hand working his cattle on his thousand-acre ranch.

Now, I’m not advocating that everyone moves out of cities and takes up residence in the wilderness.  While that would definitely reduce an individual’s chances of exposure, it just wouldn’t work for most people, and would probably mess up my wilderness too. 

All joking about my wilderness aside, there are some fairly simple commonsense measures we can take.

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Healthline.com says, “The best way to prevent the spread of this virus is to avoid or limit contact with people who are showing symptoms of the virus and have traveled to China in the past 14 days.  The next best thing you can do is practice good hygiene to prevent bacteria and viruses from spreading.  Wash your hands frequently for at least 20 seconds at a time with warm water and soap.  Don’t touch your face, eyes, nose, or mouth when your hands are dirty.  Don’t go out if you’re feeling sick or have any cold or flu symptoms, except to seek medical help.  Cover your mouth with the inside of your elbow whenever you sneeze or cough. Throw away any tissues you use to blow your nose or sneeze right away.  Keep any objects you touch a lot clean.  Use disinfectants on objects like phones, computers, utensils, dishware, and door handles.”

Now this one may be difficult for some.  If a healthcare worker tells you to stay home for fourteen days (or whatever), do it! 

OK, some might not find two weeks off from work too tough to take.

Yeah, me either.

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One particularly frightening fact is that, while people are most likely to spread the disease when they are most symptomatic, there is evidence the virus is infectious when victims are not symptomatic, according to the CDC (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention).  So, that means that you might catch it and not even know you have been exposed.

Dang it.

There is evidence that use of a surgical mask, or an N95 mask may be somewhat effective at reducing the risk of transmission.  I stress that they are not 100% effective, and they lose their effectiveness after being worn for about five hours (or have become moist). 

If you decide to use the N95 mask, be sure to wear it so that it fits snuggly around the edges so that air goes only through the filter material. 

Some of the sources I found said you should stock up on food, medications, and commonly used supplies.  Most recommend keeping at least a one-month supply of…uh, supplies, on hand.  Thus, if you decide to stay home to prevent exposing yourself to risks, or to keep from exposing others if you have been exposed, you will have plenty of necessities on hand and won’t have to go shopping and risk exposure.

Don’t underestimate the necessity of hand washing.  Dr. Trish Perl, and infectious disease specialist at UT Southwestern Medical Center, “It’s not super sexy but it works,” she said. With SARS, also a coronavirus, but one that is much deadlier, hand washing reduced the risk of transmission by 30-50%.”

Yeah, I’d say that’s pretty significant.

So, yes, even in a global pandemic, think about others when you can.

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One thing that many haven’t mentioned is vaccinations.  Infectious disease specialists strongly recommended flu vaccines and, for older people, the vaccine against pneumococcal pneumonia, although, they added, neither influenza nor the bacterial pneumonia seem to increase a person’s risk of getting a coronavirus infection or becoming seriously ill.  But it is possible that the coronavirus, by injuring lung cells, can make it easier for pneumonia to take hold, Perl said.  Avoiding the flu also means you won’t take up the resources of a hospital and the time of health care workers in the event of a coronavirus outbreak.

Please take precautions to protect you and your loved ones; it’s better to be safe than sorry.  In my case, if there is ANY possibility that I have been exposed, I won’t visit my grandson, Payden, whose leukemia treatments have compromised his immune system.  I’ll hate not being able to see him, but it’s better than taking a chance on exposing him to COVID-19.

If you take precautions but your best friend doesn’t, she could spread the virus to you.  Making your family sick could make your best friend into your worst enemy.

But, hey, at least she won’t bite you. 

Well…probably.

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